NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance).
They’re now predicting 6 to 11 hurricanes (winds of 64 knots or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 96 knots or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.
(Image credit: NOAA)