95% Chance for Winter El Niño

The most recent El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, dated August 10, 2023, and published by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, indicates:

El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024).


In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices in the central and eastern Pacific were in excess of +1.0ºC

The image above, taken from the discussion report, depicts average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) for the week centered on August 2, 2023.

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